Diversion from the Inversion

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Hey folks. 

Since my Toys-R-Us post, not much has really changed.  Still banging around 2.9, data still not stellar, Fed still hell-bent of hikes, long end still resisting.  If I go back to some of my posts 2-3 years ago, there are things that have changed, pockets of some economic hope.  At the same time, the very basis for my unmitigated, unwavering bullishness in bonds remains; technology and information. 

Unless the internet goes away, unless every machine is shut down, the very anchor on price and wage growth remains and dare I say strengthens it’s grip on inflation, and therefore; persistently low-ish rates.  As far as I’m concerned, everything else is a diversion.  I recall the reasons we boomed out of the dot.com bust; home prices, inheritance, historically low rates, intra-year tax cuts.  All transitory influences on spending. 

Note the big exclusion; WAGES.  Here we are, nearly two decades later.  In nearly the longest, yet unimaginably lumbering recovery the free world has ever seen.  What is driving us?  Home prices, tax cuts, stock prices. Familiar?  Note what is missing, yep, WAGES.  So how is now different?  Why is now different?  See every post I’ve ever done.  I don’t believe it is.  It’s a diversion, some noise from the reality of a new economy.  One that generally doesn’t support long term inflation and further creates a wealth gap that doesn’t support sustained and widespread growth. 

What does this mean for mortgage rates?  We always want to play protect, but on longer term basis I’ll just say I like the way things are shaping up.  So will there be an inversion?  It looked for some time like the Fed learned from the mid 2000’s, but perhaps they didn’t.

-Philip Mancuso

It’s All Fun and Games Until Someone Gets Hurt

OK, so I guess it’s time for the hermit to emerge from his winter’s slumber to speak a bit about the market.  I do again apologize to my followers for not speaking more often.  Anyway:

 The Fed hiked as expected yesterday, yet perhaps the market didn’t react in kind.  I going to spend a few bullet points on this before I get to why I write:

  1. Many folks were bracing for 4 hikes in 18
  2. Fed signaled 3
  3. Powell said forget about 19-20, which at the time of the statement were reason for concern
  4. We’ve been unable to break 2.9ish for some time

The longer we stay(ed) at these levels (2.9ish), the more likely it is we’ll see(saw) a bounce, just as our inability to break lower in q3 2017 inversely hurt us.  I’ll just add that I’m not so sure the Fed should have shrugged off the weak q1 consumer…

Now that’s a good segue into my point.

If you were a kid growing up in America (they later became worldwide), was there a greater place than Toys r us? I mean who didn’t want to go there?  Who’s parents didn’t shop there?  For goodness sakes, their name IS TOYS R US.  They R TOYS!!!   Well no longer.  No more fun and games.  No more holiday time retreats for kids to show their parents the toys they so want for Christmas.  They are closing the doors.  Replaced by a computer or smart phone.  Very romantic.  And why does this matter??  See every post I’ve ever written.  This compression of the retail distribution channel and erosion of price elasticity is the culprit of the persistently low inflation numbers that is so perplexing to the Fed.  Why?  I don’t get it.  To me it’s clear as day.  In a bit of irony I can’t help but feel like just as Toy R Us didn’t see this new wave of commerce as a threat, the Fed continues to miss the mark similarly of why we are in a growth and inflation-less recovery. 

We’re now almost through the first quarter of 2018 and the consumer numbers have been weak.  Really weak.  Like negative weak.  Sure there’s some stronger numbers printing here and there, but we can’t have a recovery without consumer spending.  We’ve seen homes pause here as of late as well.  Is that the result of higher rates?  Not sure, but it’s hard for me to digest a recovery if the folks who are recovering all of the sudden aren’t spending money on goods or homes.  It makes me wonder if something is brewing below the surface.  I think the next few months will be very telling. They historically have been rate friendly, let’s see what happens.  I certainly wouldn’t base my recovery estimates on the Feb BLS number.  It’s not the first time we’ve seen a blowout Feb number.  March has historically been a down month, so if we see that pattern continue it could extend the rally.  You know I’m a big ISM guy, so I’m really interested in those March numbers as well.  I’ve been surprised by the fact that the spending numbers haven’t weighed down the ISMs and wondering if/when that may happen. 

TO BE CLEAR, I’m NOT making a call here.  That said, I do think some moons are aligning that could leave us with some surprisingly disappointing economic data in the coming months.  I’m not ready to make a call yet, because frankly I do see things as being a bit better.  I get that, I see that.  For me the 64k question though is better how?  What I’m not convinced about is that unlike in the pre-web days, some extra money, a bigger smile and a job doesn’t necessarily equate to a convergence of disposable income and the willingness to spend it like a drunken sailor and both are needed to fuel real growth and inflation.

NOT making a political statement here, but maybe we’ve all gotten to be a bit too serious.  Maybe we could all use some fun and games and just maybe that’s a bit more important than saving a dollar. 

RIP Toys R Us   

I just wanted to add this to my rant from earlier.  This is quoted from an AP article.  THIS is the impact of online sales vs brick and mortar that IMHO the Fed is discounting too greatly.  While TRU only has about 30k employees, check out how many jobs outside the company might be lost if they shutter.*  Do you think this many folks have a stake in an online toy sale????

The demise of Toys R Us will have a “devastating effect” on the toy industry, said Larian, who believes that 130,000 U.S. jobs could be lost when layoffs at suppliers and logistic operations are included.

* I write IF, as there is a long shot attempt to salvage parts of the company by the CEO of toy manufacturer MGA Entertainment.

Here’s the link to the article  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/toy-company-ceo-leads-effort-to-salvage-toys-r-us/ar-BBKxNlL?ocid=spartanntp

Cut Me A Break…

Not sure you’ve ever been unhappy to get a tax break, but this tax cut may be causing some near term pain if you want/need low interest rates.

Good news, I don’t see this event as the end game.  Like data points, this is an event to trade around and in no way provides any permanent direction.  It’s mostly been priced in, so I’m not certain we see a ton of pressure resulting from it.  In fact, we are at slightly better levels v prior to the vote closure.  Either way, it will make for a choppy year end for sure.  If you’re floating right now, I don’t see the need to rush to lock.  You’ve already missed it.  Play it day by day and be careful.

Getting back to the review of the day’s events;  The real result of this won’t be felt until we figure out if this money is actually going to go back into the economy.  My bet, not so much.  I suppose this is why I write.

Long time followers have noticed I’ve been mostly absent recently.  No, I’m not getting lazy. I’ve mentioned several times as my post have become more infrequent that I’ve grown tired of the repletion and find it senseless to write just for the attention.  I’ve communicated my general bullishness on rates since I started these posts internally 4 years ago, that continued through the more public iteration of my rantings over the last year or so and it persists even today.  In fact, I’ve found myself most resolute about low-ish rates when they most look to be going up.  Why?  Many of you already know my answer, but I will reiterate; nothing is broken and therefore nothing needs to be fixed.  Specifically today, I’m still not sure how anything is going to change.

 

QE(s) – check

Home appreciation – Check

Crazy stock valuations – check

Crazy inflation, new highly paid jobs and 4% GDP – CHHHHH

 

So what I’m supposed to believe now is that roughly $1000 in the average consumers pocket is going to drive inflation and growth.  Moreover, are corporations who largely haven’t pushed the profits resulting from QE through to the workforce all of the sudden going to treat tax savings differently? I’ll believe it when I see it.  Last I checked, if a bonus is paid on stock prices and stock prices are driven by profits, what exactly is the motivation to spend this tax savings in a me/today society?

 

Amazon isn’t going away.  Neither is the internet, information, productivity, globalization, automation, etc, etc.  As you know my thesis for perpetually low rates is that to have inflation you need pricing power.  To have growth, you need some combination of increased consumption, price or both.  Well if the population is shrinking and there is a race to the bottom in price, we could only drive growth through consumption.  One can’t consume incrementally more each year without disposable income.  Wage growth has been non-existent for over 20 years.  All this $90/month does is get us a little closer to effectively earning slightly more than we did in ’96.  So I’m not sure that does it.  Lastly, there’s the little wrinkle called debt.  Despite some degree of deleveraging over the last decade, we are still a payment society.  So history has told us over the last decade or so, every time rates go up, the economy doesn’t.

 

Long story short is  I’m saying the same thing I always say I guess.  Don’t bet on 3% just yet.  I’m still waiting for to see something to change my mind.  Maybe by q2 I will.  I doubt it though.

 

Bulls and bears…

Phil Mancuso,

Chief Investment Officer, Equity Prime Mortgage

Crazy Stuff…

Rate Hike Teaser

Inflation running under target?  Check

Low growth intact?  Check

Are we lowering mid and longer range rate expectations?  Check

 

So the Fed checked every box,

Including the boxes that talked about 3 hikes next year and tapering the balance sheet.  You can’t make this stuff up. But hey, all of this serves as the normal FOMC contradictions we’ve come to expect.  They keep looking for growth that never comes, protecting against inflation levels we aren’t half way to.  So how do we react to this?  

 

We are exactly in the spot I suggested in my last post… 

We tend to creep up around now, feeling more pressure in about a month and bounce sometime in Dec.  I wouldn’t panic.  We’ve sold into these pretty hard up to now, so I would think we’ll find some support around 2.28 if not 2.32.  I don’t see us breaking much higher immediately, but I would be playing a bit of protect here.

 

 Philip Mancuso 

#money  #fomcgoals #stillontherange #smh #noinflation  #ratehike #check #thefed #itoldyouso #themancusowatch

 

It’s National Thank You Day, Sooooo…

Thank You

I didn’t realize that today is National Thank You day.

I actually thought that was called Thanksgiving….

First, I’d like to say thank you to all my followers.  Thank you to my colleagues for their part in making EPM better every day in every way.  Thank you to my family for supporting me.  Thank you to my parents for having me.  Thank you to Van Halen for making the greatest Rock & Roll ever!

Thank you to all of those that made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom.  Thank you to my friends, as few of you as there may be and for being crazier than I am.  Thank you to the Yankees for drafting Don Mattingly,  my favorite player of all time.  Perhaps most of all I’d like to thank the Fed for getting it wrong since at least the early 2000’s

 

Now the apologies…

Sorry, it’s been a while since my last post.  Where have I been?  Besides thinking of people to thank; I’ve been reaping the benefits of my call for lower rates.  As you know, I like to write when there is something to say and how many times can I say “this is the range, the data doesn’t add up and the Fed is offside”?

I did figure it was time to drop a note about the next 30 day’s.

 First let’s start with the data today.  No one seems to care, but retail sales missed pretty good and were revised down.  I find the revision is significant, in that last month’s number sort of came outta nowhere and today proves that it was overdone.  The August number reaffirms that the consumer isn’t gaining traction.  Where does this leave us?  Well, in the same cycle we’ve been in; I really don’t have anything more to say about that.  Lock/float the range.

 What you should pay attention to is the greater cycle.  I’ve found that rates generally start to slightly worsen around now, but mid October is the real hit.  So look for some pain from roughly 10/16-12/15 give or take a some days ( I see no reason why that wouldn’t be the case this year) at a minimum I would lock/float closings in the next 30 days around that assumption.  

 

Here are some Fannie 3 Q4 price drops (rates worsen) from the past few years:

 

2013  (4 point drop, roughly 1% rate increase)

98 28+

94 28+

 

2014  (1.5 point drop, roughly .375% rate increase)

101 9

99 25

 

2015  (2+ point drop, roughly .5% rate increase)

101 27

99 21

 

2016  (6+ point drop, roughly 1.5% rate increase)

103 27

97 19

 #thankyou #yourewelcome #stillintherange #brokenrecord #vanhelen

THANK YOU

 Phillip Mancuso

q4

 

Maybe we should be reading the tea leaves…

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Q2 GDP just printed and while you can draw some near term conclusions, I’m compelled to push back a bit as I usually do.
Frankly I don’t care about 2.2 v 2.5 v 2.8 right now.  As we know this number could be off 1 anyway.  We saw 2015 rev up, 2016 and Q1 2017 rev down.  Make no mistake, net, this is a bad 2017 report.  The combined total of Q1 and Q2 miss, earnings missed, prices missed.  The other components were a bit of a mixed bag.
I don’t want to get caught up in the weeds though, I’m a bit more focused on the leaves…Tea leaves.  Why?  Starbucks is shuttering all their Teavana stores by Q1 2018.  Why?  Mall traffic or lack thereof.  Why does this matter?  Well, to TEA (sic) it up for you, here’s a refresher you can catch later:
So why do we care about mall traffic, people are just buying on the web right?  I’ve covered this topic before as well, so I’ll keep it short.  All commerce isn’t equal.  E-commerce clearly has a much smaller eco-system and lower margins.  Both equate to a much smaller segment of the population benefitting from an E-tailer’s propriety, versus a brick and mortar shop.  The result is an anchor on prices and thus inflation and wages, and oh yes, an extended period of low growth.

If you don’t believe that, check this out:

Therefore, in the near term, I still see the range intact.  Who knows if the Fed moves.  Maybe we do make a run at 3 before year end as ridiculous as I think that would be.  I have difficulty seeing a break above 2.41 in the near term though.  We have a ton of data next week, so it makes sense to play it close to the vest until then as you never know, perhaps with a slight bias to lower rates.  More importantly, until something big comes along to change things, all I keep seeing is #LowerForLonger.  It’s #InTheLeaves
#WhatRecovery #ThingsAren’tBroken #Hashtag
-Philip Mancuso

It’s 5 O’clock somewhere

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Hey folks, it’s been too long.  I just haven’t felt inspired.  My thought was I’d just do another piece on how the market got it wrong @ 2.40 and calling for 3 by year’s end.  I mean how much of that can you really hear?  Here’s a quick refresher and those new to the blog, please go back and read the previous posts to catch up.   It figures I’d pick a day with no data and where it seems all of Wall Street is likely already sipping on gin and tonics in the Hamptons to post.  At worst, they fired up the helicopters by now, I mean nothing is happening.   My screen hasn’t blinked in what seems like 5 minutes.

Anyway, a slightly positive open reinforces the trend down.  As liquidity evaporates into the Long Island sun, the afternoon could go either way.  I wouldn’t read to much into it.  

Range intact?  Check.  

2.12-2.41 with stops in between.  Check.  

Data not correlating with central banks desire to tighten.  Check.  

For the 9,833,123rd time central banks realize there will be a tantrum if they try to get serious and consequently are forced to reel it back in.  Check.

I see little inspiration to break 2.12, so I’d continue to lock the range (always look out for geopolitical stuff, etc).  Our first run at a new direction comes at the end of next week.  Durables on Thursday (meh), but a pretty important Q2 GDP on Friday.  Here’s my thought:  Central bankers are already hellbent on further tightening.  I can only see this report as surprising them to the downside and thus giving reason for pause.  I mean, what sort of blockbuster would require them to redouble their current tightening efforts.   I’ll post a strategy around mid week around that.  Locks/floats ahead of that event are really predicated on current levels, so it’s not something I’d want to advise on today.

In the meantime, it makes sense to lock whatever July stragglers are left and you you feel froggy, early August closings could float, but I’d begin locking those up if we break 2.20.

-Philip Mancuso