Hoping to hold at 2.52 after a bad 5 year auction

bull and bear

We’re still in the range and there’s no reason to think we are headed anywhere but up from here, but whenever you are moving towards the higher end of the range it’s not fun.

Quarter 4 GDP will be released Friday:  Reason for both caution and optimism.  Consensus is 2.2, which puts us ahead of 2015 Q4, and even with 2014, so not a blockbuster number by any stretch.  

ISM may indicate a hit or beat.  Sales suggest a miss.  

At this point I’d assume you’ve locked down January closings.  If you haven’t it may make sense.  Beyond that it seems like a case by case decision to me.  Short of a crushing beat, I do think we have a ceiling about .125 above these levels, so maybe the case is 65/35 float on that alone.  

That said:  bulls and bears my friends….

 

-Philip Mancuso

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