So the Fed pulled a fast one on us today.  They were more hawkish on the surface, but then again maybe they were more dovish.  I think it’s really up to interpretation.

Here’s my read:  The Fed was more short term hawkish, long term dovish and for the most part didn’t change economic expectations.  Therefore all the shorts that were pricing in doomsday are running for the hills right now and we’re testing 2.50.  I’d add they tabled balance sheet speak and Yellen defined measured pace in the presser by making it clear the new measured pace is much slower than the old measured pace, which may be considered fast.

The long and short is that if you weren’t so fast to lock based on my 3/9 blog you’re as much as 100 basis points better in fee (you’re welcome) and the pace with which you were going to jump off a cliff just got a lot slower.   While we’d like to rally into the close and open positive tomorrow, I’m not sure this would confirm anything beyond hikes were overpriced and the range in intact.   If you’ve been following you know what to do, if not go back and read!!! ; )

PS Keep in mind the magical date of mid-March.  If you go back a few more posts we talked about rates worsening from late February until around St. Patty’s every year.  Perhaps more confirmation that 2.62 is strong like bull.

#notsofast #measuredpace #slowisthenewfast #thisiswhatitsoundslikewhendovescry

Here’s a chart, fast and free.  

-Philip Mancuso