ADP, as easy as 123, ECB, NFP, GDP baby you and me

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It’s a huge week for data, not the least of which is ADP tomorrow and NFP Wednesday.  

As you know I love the ISMs, which are noticeably absent from the title as they didn’t have the foresight to give them a name that rhymes.  Well, we’re getting those this week and in fact we’re through the first two rounds of of ISM somewhat unscathed.   We made our way down to the bottom of the range and have rejected a break below earlier today. It stands to reason that we wouldn’t break unless something big happened.  That ammo is certainly in the chamber this week, but I’m not sure we’ll get what we are looking for. We’re getting help from abroad as the ECB is starting to pull back on the hawkishness. I’m really looking forward to Q1 GDP later in the month.  Some of the early reporting strength will either be supported or debunked by this number and by the time the dust settles I believe the tone for early Summer rates will be set by Q1 GDP above the early March numbers.  

If I had to put a number on it I’d say 65-35 we test 2% sometime soon.  

As a follow up; that Mall strength I noted a few posts back, not so much the last two trips. I’m still watching though…

-Philip Mancuso

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