Nothing funny, no anecdotes, just straight stuff here.
What we are seeing is a strong move down in coupon on the data tanks. It’s unlikely we will see this in all rate sheets today as the fed is looming at 2, but all things equal we would see it in reprices later or tomorrow. Pulling out to a higher level for a moment, when something like this happens we see lower rates improve exponentially and the belly and upper end move negligibly. I can’t even rule out higher rates worsening slightly as par rates get adjusted.
Further, make no mistake this is a full on repricing of 2017 as far as I see it. The Fed doesn’t have a leg to stand on right now. Consumer crushed, inflation in check, jobs sagging. If the Fed holds today, we may breach 2 by 5 even if temporarily. Keep in mind we have been repricing 2017 all the way down here, so at some point there may be some profit taking. As for the Fed, the key is looking at the projections, which by the way they haven’t gotten right since 1582. OK here’s my Mancuso soap box:
- If we are getting shook here, what happens when the Summer data is typically bad? Can we bet on that data being good? That a typically rate friendly period all of the sudden reverses the trend, both on an intra and multi year basis?
- If we’ve been in recovery as many would sell you on, then this data weakening is a sign of a potential move to recession. This is almost year 10 of the “recovery” right?
- Get ready for the hashtags
#lowerforlonger #whatrecovery #theywerewhowethoughttheywere #ifitwalkslikeaduck #sink-oohmy-o #there’sbeenanawakening #somethingfunnyhappenedonthewayto3% #thingsaren’tbroken #figureslieandliarsfigure
OK, so now a touch of reality. Rates never go straight down. More importantly, while my reaction today is a bit over the top, its more about “I told them so” then it is that I think something groundbreaking has happened here. I just get the sense that a bit more of the market is coming around to our way of evaluating the facts. I would simply stay within the narrative of #lowerforlonger and therefore to hit when it makes sense. Pigs get slaughtered. I don’t think locks here are a terrible idea, even if the full move hasn’t been realized.
We don’t know what the Fed is going to do today. At the same time even if they fully unload on us will the bond vigilantes go over the top? I can’t rule that out. There are a ton of moving parts here to figure out where we go from here and it could still go either way, but I do feel pretty strong here though. I think floats have a bit more room. Again, don’t get greedy. If we hold these levels into the close, I’d take the winner off the table either on the first pull back or 2 neg days in a row if it’s a June/early July closing.
My bottom line for Quarter 2/3:
95% we see 2.00
65% we see 1.80
My bottom line for Quarter 3/4:
30% we see 2.42
50% we see 2.35
0% we see >2.65