- Who knew I had a bad cell phone plan. I was looking to the Fed to set rates, but this was a huge help.
- The Fed picks now to get hawkish???? What are they seeing that they haven’t in the last 8 years?
- Generally the market doesn’t care, but we’re certainly not as happy as we were at 1:59
So my near term takeaway, most everything I said in my prior post sticks. Obviously they didn’t hold, thus we’re not seeing 2 by 5:00. The market is having one of the expected reactions though, which is they are largely ignoring the hawkish tone due to the weakness of the underlying data. I’d have the same approach to locking, except add a bit more caution. I don’t think our path has changed, it’s perhaps just gotten a bit steeper and a touch longer.
In a broader view: What the heck just happened??? Did Yellen just blame cell phone plans for being a drag on prices????
What’s next? A leak that Wendy’s is considering taking one slice of bacon out of the Baconator as a reason to short pork??? C’mon. Also, she clearly hasn’t been to the drug store if she thinks prescription drugs are cheaper!! Hello, EPI pens!!?!?!?!?
I must say that I believe what possibly just happened was a worst case scenario for the economy. The fed more bearish, announcing a hike and balance sheet activity. This is 2005/2006 IMHO. Ignoring the facts, being pig headed. Staying the course because that’s what you do, that’s what we’ve always done. This isn’t the old economy though! This could crush the economy as it did in 2008 if they stay this course IMHO. Just as I predicted on CNBC 2005, and I loosely quote “the fed is tightening for no reason and they are going to wake up and say oh my God what did we do?” Now we are potentially looking at a stock and balance sheet bubble that could burst. We already are talking about a potential yield inversion. You know when that last happened???? You know that is usually an indicator of a recession right??
This is not good.
In terms of today, we are surging back into the closed it’s looking like 2.12. That level in itself doesn’t tell me where we are going tomorrow, so it’s a bit of a coin toss. I go back to earlier, I would stay the course, just with a bit more caution. #lowerforlonger for sure though.
I have to go now. I’m headed to the mall to change my phone plan and refill my son’s allergy prescriptions. Who knew…