I didn’t realize that today is National Thank You day.
I actually thought that was called Thanksgiving….
First, I’d like to say thank you to all my followers. Thank you to my colleagues for their part in making EPM better every day in every way. Thank you to my family for supporting me. Thank you to my parents for having me. Thank you to Van Halen for making the greatest Rock & Roll ever!
Thank you to all of those that made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. Thank you to my friends, as few of you as there may be and for being crazier than I am. Thank you to the Yankees for drafting Don Mattingly, my favorite player of all time. Perhaps most of all I’d like to thank the Fed for getting it wrong since at least the early 2000’s
Now the apologies…
Sorry, it’s been a while since my last post. Where have I been? Besides thinking of people to thank; I’ve been reaping the benefits of my call for lower rates. As you know, I like to write when there is something to say and how many times can I say “this is the range, the data doesn’t add up and the Fed is offside”?
I did figure it was time to drop a note about the next 30 day’s.
First let’s start with the data today. No one seems to care, but retail sales missed pretty good and were revised down. I find the revision is significant, in that last month’s number sort of came outta nowhere and today proves that it was overdone. The August number reaffirms that the consumer isn’t gaining traction. Where does this leave us? Well, in the same cycle we’ve been in; I really don’t have anything more to say about that. Lock/float the range.
What you should pay attention to is the greater cycle. I’ve found that rates generally start to slightly worsen around now, but mid October is the real hit. So look for some pain from roughly 10/16-12/15 give or take a some days ( I see no reason why that wouldn’t be the case this year) at a minimum I would lock/float closings in the next 30 days around that assumption.
Here are some Fannie 3 Q4 price drops (rates worsen) from the past few years:
2013 (4 point drop, roughly 1% rate increase)
2014 (1.5 point drop, roughly .375% rate increase)
2015 (2+ point drop, roughly .5% rate increase)
2016 (6+ point drop, roughly 1.5% rate increase)
#thankyou #yourewelcome #stillintherange #brokenrecord #vanhelen