Nothing funny, no anecdotes, just straight stuff here.
What we are seeing is a strong move down in coupon on the data tanks. It’s unlikely we will see this in all rate sheets today as the fed is looming at 2, but all things equal we would see it in reprices later or tomorrow. Pulling out to a higher level for a moment, when something like this happens we see lower rates improve exponentially and the belly and upper end move negligibly. I can’t even rule out higher rates worsening slightly as par rates get adjusted.
Further, make no mistake this is a full on repricing of 2017 as far as I see it. The Fed doesn’t have a leg to stand on right now. Consumer crushed, inflation in check, jobs sagging. If the Fed holds today, we may breach 2 by 5 even if temporarily. Keep in mind we have been repricing 2017 all the way down here, so at some point there may be some profit taking. As for the Fed, the key is looking at the projections, which by the way they haven’t gotten right since 1582. OK here’s my Mancuso soap box:
- If we are getting shook here, what happens when the Summer data is typically bad? Can we bet on that data being good? That a typically rate friendly period all of the sudden reverses the trend, both on an intra and multi year basis?
- If we’ve been in recovery as many would sell you on, then this data weakening is a sign of a potential move to recession. This is almost year 10 of the “recovery” right?
- Get ready for the hashtags
#lowerforlonger #whatrecovery #theywerewhowethoughttheywere #ifitwalkslikeaduck #sink-oohmy-o #there’sbeenanawakening #somethingfunnyhappenedonthewayto3% #thingsaren’tbroken #figureslieandliarsfigure
OK, so now a touch of reality. Rates never go straight down. More importantly, while my reaction today is a bit over the top, its more about “I told them so” then it is that I think something groundbreaking has happened here. I just get the sense that a bit more of the market is coming around to our way of evaluating the facts. I would simply stay within the narrative of #lowerforlonger and therefore to hit when it makes sense. Pigs get slaughtered. I don’t think locks here are a terrible idea, even if the full move hasn’t been realized.
We don’t know what the Fed is going to do today. At the same time even if they fully unload on us will the bond vigilantes go over the top? I can’t rule that out. There are a ton of moving parts here to figure out where we go from here and it could still go either way, but I do feel pretty strong here though. I think floats have a bit more room. Again, don’t get greedy. If we hold these levels into the close, I’d take the winner off the table either on the first pull back or 2 neg days in a row if it’s a June/early July closing.
My bottom line for Quarter 2/3:
95% we see 2.00
65% we see 1.80
My bottom line for Quarter 3/4:
30% we see 2.42
50% we see 2.35
0% we see >2.65
It’s been a couple weeks since my last post. Haven’t had a ton of inspiration from this rangebound market. There’s a chance here that we might break the range, so I figured I’d write. As Denny Green said, they were who we thought they were. Frankly, I was a bit surprised that the May number tanked. I was looking more to June, but for anyone who has been following my blog, you know this has been in the cards for some time. Where does the Fed go from here? Boy it’s tough to predict 2 more hikes at this point. And I love how the media brushes that under the carpet. Now I’m reading maybe September, but we haven’t even had the June meeting!!! Just a month or so ago seemed to be a fait accompli, right?!?!
I guess I wasn’t so crazy calling for a test of 2% in April. At the end of the day, all my talk about a new range and the truth is we are still stuck in my biggest range of them all and that’s #lowerforlonger. I hate to sound like a broken record all the time, but haven’t we heard this song before??
#lowerforlonger #homeontherange #whatcomesaroundgoesaround #whatrecovery? #itain’tbroke #haveyoufeltit? #afunnythinghappenedonthewayto3%
When can we start calling some bull on this recovery? First we had a “jobless recovery”. Now I’m calling for a consumer-less recovery. We are clearly in a growth-less recovery. So how is this exactly a recovery?
We’ve been sitting on 2.42 support for a few days now and the consumer is doing its collective best to propel us off that support and back towards the lower end of the range. A positive Monday opening would certainly confirm that much. A close below 2.37 is necessary, 2.35 is great, 2.32 is fantastic for the projects of a solid bounce.
If I get out of the micro view for a second, I’d like to go back to my 1/27 post, which is linked here for your reading pleasure.
As I indicated on that day, I’m putting a ton of stock in the consumer this year. Given the “less recovery” I outlined above, at what point do we call bull on this recovery altogether and get back to the realization that things aren’t broke, they are just different. The Fed’s inability to read this phenomena has done nothing but create huge Fed induced spikes in rates followed by an almost immediate sustained drop in rates. This great for traders and vol seekers who are on the right side of it, but not the economy, which is what the Fed’s decisions are intended to best serve.
Another shameless plug, here’s a link to that post:
What does all this mean? I’ve been calling for a 70/30 lower rates. I’m still there. I’m skeptical about the next 30-60 days as this period tends to be generally bond unfriendly. Particularly with the help of a May jobs number that we get in early June. Brexit helped us last year, but I’m not sure we’ll get that help this year from and unexpected event. I’d lock/float the range/ranges I’ve laid out in previous posts.
For today, I’d lock anything that you are breathing a sigh of relief on. As for the others, it makes sense to give it another day and play it day by day thereafter. We’re at a pivot here, there’s another about 50 bps beyond that. Therefore I’m roughly 65% lock here and 85% lock at that next gap down in yield. To hold out the Mid-April low in yields should be reserved for late June closings or beyond. #BullsAndBears
In the end, maybe the economy is just a bit of an ugly duckling that we have to learn to love. Hey, ugly ducks need love too…
#LowerForLonger #WhatRecovery #IfItWalksLikeADuck #UglyDucksNeedLoveToo
How do we interpret today’s NFP?
Do we get excited about the headline or remain skeptical over the negative revisions. Personally I see the avalanche of data from the past week as bond friendly in the aggregate. Mostly misses and the Fed was not hawkish. I concede the ISM services and labor cost numbers stand out a bit, but today’s big revision to March wages should take the edge off the former and weak GDP and slow retail sales do similarly for the latter. Not to mention, a Puerto Rico BK doesn’t exactly give me warm and fuzzies either. I don’t want to overstate the significance of that, but if nothing else, it’s the first time a US State or territory has taken those drastic financial steps.
So I guess the rate question is: Oh my, are we sinking? The bottom line is my float/lock assumptions remain intact. There’s still plenty of time left on the day, but my sense is we’ll end it slightly positive. I would further argue that we need to break 2.32 fairly early next week to back into that lower range mode.
I don’t always celebrate cinco de mayo, but when I do it’s with lower rates. Stay originating my friends.
#Sink-oDeMy-o #HomeOnTheRange #LowerForLonger #StayOriginatingMyFriend
“Many of the truths we cling to are based on a certain point of view”
– Obi Wan Kenobi
In life imitating art we indeed find that perspective is a significant part of interpreting what the data means for the economy and thus the Fed and interests rates. Today we are largely seeing pressure from a labor cost beat. In a vacuum I might agree with this action. Higher wages could lead to inflation. My issue with the reaction is that in the last week most if not all of the data leading up to NFP has been weaker, save ISM services. I’m not connecting the dots myself, and I suppose this will eventually come out in the wash, but for now we’re left with some decisions to make. Lock or float into tomorrow.
In the end my ranges and my lock/float bias are unaffected by todays action. If you are 1-2 weeks outs lock, 2+ weeks out float. Either way don’t chase losers. You missed the boat at 2.14. Lastly, don’t put all your eggs in either basket. I still have a roughly 70/30% medium range rate favorable perspective.
TK421 is still not at his post…
The Fed held fast today, as expected, but our focus is on the entirety of the statement, more then focusing on the rate action.
I see both dovish and hawkish points in the statement. I see a no move on the balance sheet as significant. They scoffed at slowing growth, calling it likely transitory, but frankly the market hasn’t been buying it, hence 10s being closer to 2 then 3. On balance I call this statement Dovish. Not in words, more in my interpretation.
Here’s what I mean:
1. If the Fed wasn’t hawkish, further into a hike cycle, where the market has been bracing for it, does this signal some underlying concern about the data.
2. I’ve blogged this 100 times; when has the Fed been right about growth??? Therefore, if they are ignoring Q1 weakness, yet still not moving, what happens when/if Q1 weakness turns into Q2 weakness or even 2017 weakness. Further, if employment continues to strengthen per the Fed, how do we explain 98k. Frankly all of this rings a bit hollow to me.
All I can say is #LowerForLonger #WindowIsClosing #CanEveryQ1TankBeTransitory?? #98IsTheNext200k
ISM services did beat today. So far I’d say nosiest of the rate stuff has gone in our favor this week and we wait for NFP Friday. I wouldn’t change my ranges, so govern yourselves accordingly. If you aren’t familiar with the ranges, please check our my previous posts. We’d like to close below 2.32 today to stay in that lower range. We are moderately weaker v 1:59.
So we missed as I suspected. Prices and employment a bit hot, but consumers not so much. We gave it a shot, took the risk and we weren’t hurt. We held 2.32. Again, no big win here, just bought some time. Next week is a big week: ISM, ADP, NFP, Fed. The bottom line is the data has been worsening so I don’t see tremendous risk here. If you are counting eights and quarters you may want to be a bit more cautious. End of day might get choppy with month end. Frankly, I couldn’t arguing with locking around here. Particularly on near term closings.
If I can digress for a second. Forgetting what rates do tomorrow, what the Fed does next week, etc, etc etc, can we talk about GDP for a moment.
Firstly, Q1 is seemingly always weak. I’ve tracked this in earlier posts. So why anyone was thinking it wouldn’t be is beyond me. Does it feel like groundhog day here?
I’d challenge anyone to show me why 2017 is any different from the last decade. I just don’t see 3% in a minute as they say nowadays.